Despite good empirical evidence demonstrating the perils of basing policy on untested ideas, our Government continue to initiate and implement shallow, obnoxious and thoroughly flawed policies. Some recently enacted policies are more disruptive and horrid than others, but I have found myself persistently wondering: what exactly is the how of the formulation of these pea brained policies? While I am very optimistic, I am fully aware that our political Leaders are not capable of any critical thinking. It is becoming increasingly clear even to the most idealistic people that otherwise commonsensical notions require a mighty cerebral effort for a good number of them. The fact that we cannot expect intellectually sound ideas from simpletons ignites a fundamental curiosity: regardless of the intellectual capacity of a Nigerian Politician and his/her strategists, are there any acceptable courses of action or procedures that modulate policy formulation in Nigeria?

I try conscientiously not to restrict my popular writing to my opinion or mere ranting. I endeavor to use data to explore the challenges confronting us as a Nation and evaluate how policy solutions together with constructive civic engagement can contribute meaningfully to our democratization and socioeconomic development. This as you might imagine, requires heavy research and my research is typically not limited to reading but speaking with as many experts as humanly possible.

So this time around, after going through several hoops and hurdles, I was by sheer providence introduced to a former Government strategist, a now retired Professor of Economics, who was very generous with me and answered all my questions patiently. At some point, during our discussion, he referred me to some relevant academic papers that he and some colleagues had published recently. I was glad, as that would provide the opportunity for me to peruse Figures and Tables, which for me is the most efficient way to understand research output. In a bizarre twist of events however, I discovered that these papers were not available on the internet, leaving me feeling completely flummoxed. I would like to state unambiguously that it is not my intention to criticize this apparently brilliant and decent man, and that invariably, I was able to read the papers (they are available at a University Library).

This experience, while particularly poignant in this instance, is not unique. Many times, I find myself during the course of research feeling desperately frustrated. Some days I spend hours reading worthless junk reports/commentaries and using every trick possible to attempt to extrapolate linear, consistent relationships between/among variables, predict outcomes or infer meaningful conclusions from what I can only refer to as hack jobs. I thus decided to switch tones and chose to focus instead on what I consider a Gordian knot; data availability and presentation in Nigeria.

There is a painful dearth of data in Nigeria. It is hard to pin down precise numbers on virtually any subject matter, from security (or shall I say insecurity indeed), public health, trade, agriculture, manufacturing, resource extraction/exploration or technological innovation, police work and other related social issues. All Practitioners, administrators and policy makers need accurate and adequate information to fulfil their professional and societal obligations. It is obvious and I wish I did not have to emphasize this in 2020, but actionable governance is impossible without data!

I should clarify here that ‘data’ in this context does not exclusively mean units or hard numbers, we also have no quantitative social indicators whatsoever. Which begs the question, what drives socio-economic decision making in Nigeria? And what really is the government’s plan to spur the economy? How can we respond appropriately to contemporary threats and challenges with no solid data to adequately characterize our problems? How can we develop operational tactics and strategies in the face of such dire data inadequacies? So evidently, we need better numbers, but how can this be achieved?  

Here a few of my thoughts and I must clarify that they are my thoughts, not backed by any substantial experiential evidence. First, I think we need improved government investment in research. This will require much more than just pumping money into the system. It is necessary to strengthen human capability to conduct good quality research that will be comprehensible by a global audience. Good science is very expensive and we need a consistent positive pattern of political choices to inform locally tailored research. Furthermore, we must develop a transparent, crisp, linear process where all relevant players are conscientious, reform-minded, passionate, fastidious and are open-minded to novel technologies and investigative approaches.

Data collection does not have to be limited to academic or structured research; commercial research organizations, the media, think tanks, political organizations, other interest groups, lobbyists and other establishments may use standardized approaches (for example, sample surveys and polls) to not only generate socially relevant data, but periodically assess social attitudes/public opinion. All that matters is that the involved parties are capable of objectively identifying and exploring arguments that illuminate our most urgent developmental issues and generate meaningful data from the process. It is also crucial that such research endeavors differentiate clearly between controversy and consensus. It is important to state here that while I encourage bountiful commercial investments in research or data acquisition, we must be aware of the potential for big money to pervert research and we must vigilantly adopt tactics that will preserve the integrity of the process.

Of the several key relevant Professionals required for the sound acquisition, interpretation, presentation, management and preservation of useful data for Nigeria’s socio-economic development, I want to focus briefly on a critical yet overlooked group of experts: Historians. They are relevant for this process for a wide variety of reasons, but for one, our traditions influence our inclinations and behavior as a people. While I think there are many sound Historians, I believe that it is necessary to mentor contemporary Historians [particularly those who choose relevant specialization(s)] to not only objectively report, analyze and report history, but work to provide an integrated analyses of our social, cultural, political, diplomatic and economic realities.

Overall, we must begin to prioritize empiricism and generate requisite data to properly describe our problems, create estimates, forecasts and developmental policies. Nigeria’s problems are multifaceted, but lack of good data complicates all of them either collectively or separately.

I am still in the process of learning how policies are formulated in Nigeria and in due course, all things being equal, there will be an actual post on field trials of policies.